AGP Executive Report

Sanctions Watch: Sudan’s Sovereignty Council chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan warned sanctions could be imposed on Khartoum “in the coming days,” as fighting with the RSF continues and defections reportedly swell the army’s ranks. Maritime Risk for Trade: Pirates hijacked two tankers off Yemen and Somalia, holding 22 Indian sailors; one vessel was reportedly sailing from Shinas toward Port Sudan, underlining how shipping lanes tied to Sudan’s economy remain exposed. Humanitarian Pressure: In Khartoum’s southern belt, community kitchens (“takayas”) reportedly stopped operating after army advances and funding cuts, leaving about 50,000 families at risk amid rising prices and power outages. Regional Business Ties: Egypt’s Suez Canal Authority and CMA CGM discussed expanded cooperation as transit volumes rebound, with more vessels and tonnage since the start of the year. Diplomacy & Finance: Kuwait and Sudan discussed economic cooperation and financial ties, while Qatar and Egypt signed multiple deals to deepen investment and health cooperation. Energy & Water Stakes: Egypt faces Ethiopia’s renewed Blue Nile dam push, with cooperation involving Sudan highlighted as Cairo seeks leverage beyond outright obstruction.

Sudan Humanitarian Access: Takayas (community kitchens) in southern Khartoum have shut down after the army retook the area and external funding was cut, leaving around 50,000 families without meals as prices for basic goods reportedly more than doubled. Khartoum Cost of Living: Residents and traders also report worsening power cuts, disrupting water, food storage, and market activity. Horn of Africa Security: Ethiopia’s ENA reports warnings that conflict-driven alliances in the Horn—linked to Eritrea, TPLF, Sudan and Egypt—are deepening polarization and raising the risk of renewed tensions. Maritime Trade Risk: Pirates hijacked two commercial vessels off Yemen and Somalia, with 22 Indian nationals among the crews; the incidents highlight ongoing disruption risks for shipping routes near the Bab el-Mandeb. Regional Diplomacy & Investment: Kuwait and Sudan discussed ways to strengthen financial and economic cooperation during a Sudanese finance minister visit. Health & Aid Systems: UNAIDS says HIV care integration should match each country’s readiness, especially in conflict and fragile settings where dedicated HIV services must be protected.

Sudan Return Logistics: Sudan’s Al-Amal Committee says 870 Sudanese nationals left Egypt for home on 30 buses, including university professors and students, with support arrangements being coordinated with Sudanese institutions and business partners. Regional Finance & Cooperation: Kuwait and Sudan’s finance ministers met to discuss strengthening financial and economic cooperation and deepen bilateral ties during a Sudanese delegation visit. Qatar-Egypt Trade & Health Deals: Qatar and Egypt signed four agreements covering customs cooperation, regulatory work, development and health cooperation, plus a Qatari-funded hospital in Sohag, as leaders also reviewed investment and food security priorities. Nile Water Leverage Watch: Egypt is weighing diplomacy and international pressure over Ethiopia’s reported push to advance new Blue Nile hydropower projects after GERD, testing Cairo’s ability to turn objections into practical leverage. Sudan Conflict Tech Arms Race: Reports say Sudan’s army has destroyed at least six Chinese-made CH-95 drones since June, highlighting a drone contest between Turkish Akıncı and RSF CH-95 systems. Humanitarian Pressure in Sudan: Medical groups warn of new displacement waves, including nearly 39,000 displaced children arriving in El Obeid over six months, as the city nears breaking point.

Sudan Humanitarian Crisis: Sudanese Doctors Network warns of worsening conditions in Blue Nile after 5,000+ people were displaced from Qeissan to Damazin, citing shortages of food, medicine, water and shelter, with heavy rains raising health risks. Displacement Surge in Kordofan: Save the Children reports nearly 39,000 children arriving in El Obeid in six months, with rising child malnutrition, severe food gaps and water shortages as drone strikes damage infrastructure. Security and Defections: More than 300 RSF rebels reportedly defected to the Sudanese army, moving from North Darfur to Omdurman—sparking demands that defectors face accountability for alleged war crimes. Aid System Under Strain: UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher rejects claims Gaza’s aid system is being dismantled, but warns violence against aid workers is becoming normalized, with drones and impunity worsening risks. Regional Diplomacy: Sudan’s Sovereign Council, via Deputy Malik Agar, pursues discreet de-escalation with Ethiopia amid drone-related tensions, aiming to protect the eastern flank while focusing on internal priorities.

Sudan Humanitarian Crisis: UN and IOM warn Sudan’s floods are now tied to the war’s wider damage—displacement, destroyed infrastructure and threats to aid routes—turning heavy rain into a multiplier of suffering for millions. Education Under Pressure: In Khartoum, children are slowly returning to classrooms as security improves, but schools face overcrowding, shortages of teachers and materials, and long learning gaps. War, Climate and Protection: Floods are exposing how civilians lack the protection and services needed to handle predictable climate shocks, with 8.6 million internally displaced since April 2023. Diplomacy and Trade Links: Sudan’s ambassador to Nigeria says Khartoum and Abuja are strengthening cooperation and rejects claims that conditions in the capital are deteriorating, adding that private businesses and institutions have resumed operations as people return. Nile Water Politics: A Sudanese water expert says Ethiopia’s planned Blue Nile cascade dams are not inherently a threat if filling and operations are coordinated, arguing they could even help regulate seasonal flows and reduce flood risks. Humanitarian Funding Push: Qatar Charity launches Education Campaign 2026 aiming to support 123,000 students in need at home and abroad with supplies, school feeding and school rehabilitation.

Red Sea Security & Trade: Saudi Arabia has launched a 14-state Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect navigation and energy routes after threats of Red Sea tanker blockades, with Sudan among the signatories—raising new questions about who is inside the security architecture and how it will operate. Nile Water & Dams: A Sudanese water expert says Ethiopia’s planned additional Blue Nile cascading dams are not inherently a threat if filling and operations are coordinated across Nile Basin states, arguing the system could smooth seasonal flows and reduce flood risk. Sudan’s Economy & Human Capital: In Khartoum, children are slowly returning to school as security improves in parts of the capital, but damaged infrastructure, teacher shortages and financial strain remain major barriers. Sudan War & Supply Chains: Coverage highlights how blocked supply routes are worsening the impact of the conflict on civilians and basic services. Cross-border Business Risk: A report links UAE-backed recruitment and gold-linked activity to exposure of regional supply chains and workers to Sudan’s war economy. Humanitarian Funding Pressure: Ethiopia is pushing refugee self-reliance as aid shortfalls threaten food distributions, underscoring how funding gaps can quickly spill into livelihoods and local markets.

Maritime Security: Saudi Arabia has launched a 14-state Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance, headquartered in Riyadh, to protect Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb shipping after Houthi threats and attacks on commercial vessels. Regional Trade & Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia and Sudan held political consultation talks in Riyadh, while Egypt and the UK also discussed Gaza, Gulf security and regional crises—signals that security and trade corridors remain tightly linked. Blue Nile Humanitarian Pressure: Sudan’s Blue Nile state saw fresh displacement after RSF attacks, with 5,000+ people arriving in Damazin amid shortages of food, medicine and shelter, as heavy rains could worsen health risks. Sudan War & Civilian Impact: Reports highlight expanding conflict pressures around Blue Nile and El Obeid, including attacks that trap communities and strain already fragile services. Food & Consumer Safety: Ghana’s FDA-style enforcement focus appears in coverage, where regulators say they stopped alleged chemical misuse to ripen fruit—but did not disclose sanctions, raising questions on deterrence. Business Link: A Sudan market sample order was reported for an Indian health/consumer products firm, pointing to continued, small-scale trade attempts despite instability.

Sudan–Saudi ties: Khartoum and Riyadh signed an agreement in Riyadh to set up a Supreme Council for Strategic Cooperation, covering economic, investment, trade and political coordination, with Red Sea security flagged as a top priority. Blue Nile humanitarian pressure: In Sudan’s Blue Nile, more than 5,000 people displaced by RSF attacks arrived in Damazin, with Sudan Doctors Network warning of severe shortages of food, medicine and shelter as heavy rains could worsen health risks. War’s regional spillover: A new analysis says Sudan’s conflict has moved from an internal fight to a wider struggle over resources and external influence, with repercussions now hitting the Sahel, Horn of Africa and Red Sea security. Food trade and prices: A separate report links global food price pressure to multiple supply shocks, including the Sudan–Ethiopia border, as wheat and vegetable oil prices rise and logistics and energy costs bite. Market signal for Sudan: Russia’s wheat exports to Sudan reached about 2.2 million tons in 2025/26, doubling year-on-year, as buyers expand amid wider regional demand. Education strain in Khartoum: Children are trickling back into classrooms in the capital as security improves, but schools face damaged infrastructure, overcrowding, and teacher and materials shortages. UAE–Africa scrutiny: The UAE pushed back against an FT report on its growing Africa footprint, including allegations tied to Sudan’s war, denying wrongdoing. Humanitarian funding gap: UN data shows humanitarian funding to Jordan has fallen by over 92% since 2016, underscoring how aid shortfalls ripple across refugee-hosting economies.

Red Sea Security & Trade: Saudi Arabia unveiled a 14-state Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect navigation and oil tanker routes after Houthi threats and wider U.S.-Iran tensions, with Riyadh set to lead from a permanent HQ. Sudan War & Civilian Impact: In Blue Nile’s Qaisan area, fresh clashes are forcing rapid displacement of thousands of people and families during the harvest period, deepening a broader rights and livelihoods crisis. Humanitarian System & Aid Delivery: UN Women highlights how humanitarian workers in Sudan keep supporting women survivors and rebuilding livelihoods despite shrinking resources and insecurity, while a separate UN Volunteers call argues the humanitarian “reset” must formally recognize volunteers who sustain response on the ground. Sudan’s War Economy & External Links: A Financial Times investigation says a UAE-linked private security network recruited Colombian mercenaries to fight alongside Sudan’s RSF, including during atrocities around El-Fasher—underscoring how foreign financing and recruitment pipelines fuel the conflict. Food Security Pressure: A UN SOFI report warns 645 million people faced chronic hunger in 2025 and 2.1 billion lack regular access to safe, nutritious food as the cost of a healthy diet keeps rising. Labour & Costs (Egypt): Egypt’s Misr El Amria textile workers were locked out after rejecting pay and allowance calculations under new law, adding to wider unrest in the sector. Nile Water Stakes (Egypt-Ethiopia): Analysts warn the GERD dispute is shifting toward drought-management and authority over drought decisions, raising the risk of tougher regional confrontation. Heritage at Risk (Sudan): The Meroë pyramids face deterioration as war disrupts preservation and adds climate and conflict pressures to a UNESCO-listed danger site.

Sudan War & Economy: Sudan’s army says it has destroyed at least six Chinese-made CH-95 drones used by the RSF since late June, with a Turkish-built Bayraktar Akıncı credited for several midair intercepts and ground kills, underscoring how air power is shaping the conflict’s logistics. Refugees & Humanitarian Flows: At least 150 Sudanese refugees have been voluntarily repatriated from Uganda to Sudan, with plans targeting more than 1,300 returns as security improves and humanitarian funding tightens. Governance & Services: Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan reiterated the armed forces’ role as “the military of all Sudan,” while calling for lower prices and better basic services, including an imminent restoration of electricity in Khartoum. Nile Water Stakes: Egypt and Sudan are watching GERD drought scenarios closely as experts warn the key question is who decides during prolonged dry years—when reservoir buffers run out. Regional Trade Risk: Egypt reported exporting 160,000 tonnes of food in one week, with Sudan among key destinations, but wider Red Sea disruption fears remain a threat to regional supply chains. Security Alliances: Saudi Arabia has formed a 14-state maritime defense coalition to counter Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping, potentially affecting energy and trade costs that ripple into Sudan’s import-dependent economy.

AU Mediation: An African Union delegation is in Sudan pushing for a ceasefire, better humanitarian access and a revived political process as fighting continues and the SAF regains parts of Khartoum while the RSF holds ground in Darfur and Kordofan. Sudan Army Position: Sudan’s Sovereign Council chief and army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says the armed forces are “the military of all Sudan,” pledging unity and stability while calling for economic relief in Khartoum and hinting at a peace path that starts with RSF disarmament. Humanitarian Cost: A rights-focused report warns Sudan’s health system has effectively collapsed beyond hospitals, with 37% of facilities non-functional in 2026—fueling preventable illness, unsafe childbirth and avoidable deaths. Refugee Returns: Kuwait’s Direct Aid Society, with the Kuwaiti embassy and Sudan’s foreign ministry, launched the first voluntary return flights for over 1,000 Sudanese refugees in Uganda, costing KD 300,000 for about six weeks. Regional Security & Trade: Egypt and Turkey signed new cooperation deals in Alamein, including logistics and trade rules of origin, while broader regional moves—like the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement and Saudi-led Red Sea maritime efforts—signal intensifying security competition that can spill into Sudan’s trade routes.

Red Sea Shipping Risk: Saudi Arabia’s 14-state Multinational Maritime Defence Alliance is set to protect navigation through Bab el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden after Houthi attacks and a declared naval blockade, raising fears of a “second Hormuz” and more pressure on energy prices and trade routes. Sudan Peace Conditions: Sudan’s Sovereignty Council chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says any lasting settlement must start with RSF disarmament and assembly in designated locations before broader reconciliation. Health System Collapse: A new warning says 37% of Sudan’s health facilities are non-functional in 2026, turning the war into a wider human rights emergency beyond damaged hospitals. El Obeid Humanitarian Crunch: In North Kordofan, El Obeid is overwhelmed by displaced families, with child malnutrition rising sharply and water shortages worsening as insecurity disrupts aid and services. Mining Security Push: Western Bahr el Ghazal proposes a specialized police unit to secure Raja County mining areas amid illegal mining concerns and past fatal incidents.

Red Sea Security & Trade: Saudi Arabia has formed a 14-state Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect navigation and energy routes after Yemen’s Houthis declared a naval blockade, raising risks for oil tanker flows through Bab-el-Mandeb and the Gulf of Aden. Sudan Peace Talks: Sudan’s Sovereignty Council chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan says any lasting settlement must start with RSF disarmament and assembly in designated locations before broader reconciliation. Humanitarian & Health Collapse in Sudan: UN-linked reporting warns Sudan’s health system is failing at scale, with facilities non-functional and civilians facing preventable illness, unsafe childbirth, and avoidable deaths. Kordofan Crisis in El Obeid: El Obeid is described as a key trade artery now trapped by cholera risk, severe water shortages, militia pressure, and rising child malnutrition among hundreds of thousands displaced into the town. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt and Türkiye are deepening cooperation, with both urging political solutions to end Sudan’s war and preserve Sudan’s national institutions. Mining & Security: Western Bahr el Ghazal (in a separate regional report) proposes a specialized police unit to secure mining areas amid illegal mining and insecurity concerns.

Red Sea Trade Security: Saudi Arabia has launched a 14-state maritime coalition to protect navigation through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb after Houthi threats to blockade oil tankers, with Riyadh set to host the alliance’s permanent command and signatories including Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti, Turkey and others—raising the stakes for shipping costs and regional energy flows. Regional Security Realignment: Turkey’s push to draw Egypt into the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan signals a wider shift in Middle East security planning, while Cairo weighs its strategic autonomy as mutual-defense commitments expand. Sudan Humanitarian & Economic Pressure: In North Kordofan, El Obeid is described as a key trade and aid corridor now trapped by cholera risk, severe water shortages and collapsing services, as militias restrict movement and displaced families swell the city. Child Displacement & Malnutrition: Save the Children reports nearly 39,000 children fleeing to El Obeid in six months, with sharp rises in malnutrition cases and families struggling to access food and water amid reduced aid. Sudan Peace Politics: Sudan’s Burhan says the army is open to genuine peace initiatives but rejects any deal that returns RSF leaders to power. Education in Exile: A Sudanese refugee in eastern Chad has become a head teacher in a camp school, highlighting how displaced communities are rebuilding schooling despite chronic shortages.

Red Sea Trade Security: Saudi Arabia is moving to operationalize a 14-state maritime defense coalition to protect shipping lanes around Bab al-Mandeb, with Sudan among the signatories—an effort aimed at keeping trade and energy routes open as Houthi threats continue to raise shipping risk. Sudan War & Civilians: The UN urged Sudan’s warring parties to take concrete steps to protect civilians as fighting drags on, including drone strikes reported in North Kordofan’s El Obeid, a key commercial hub for gum arabic and livestock trade. Blue Nile Frontline: RSF claims full control of Geissan near the Ethiopian border, while Sudan’s army disputes the claim; fighting has displaced thousands and disrupted harvest-season livelihoods. Regional Diplomacy: Egypt and Türkiye discussed Gaza escalation and Sudan ceasefire and political settlement efforts, signaling continued diplomatic coordination around Sudan’s unity and sovereignty. Football & Business Interest: Six Arab football federations, including Sudan, backed FIFA President Gianni Infantino amid governance and investment-plan fallout—relevant for sports-linked sponsorship and regional fan markets.

Red Sea Trade Security: Saudi Arabia and 13 other countries have confirmed a new Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance to protect navigation through Bab al-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, with Sudan among the signatories—an effort aimed at keeping oil and shipping lanes open as Houthi threats raise costs and risk. Sudan Frontline Updates: RSF claims full control of Geissan in Blue Nile near Ethiopia, while the Sudanese army disputes it; fighting has displaced about 2,500 people and is tied to harvest-season looting allegations and pressure on key supply routes. Sudan War’s Human Cost: Reports highlight drone-driven escalation and wider aerial warfare across Sudan, with civilians increasingly caught in attacks and displacement. Diplomacy for De-escalation: Egypt and Türkiye discussed Gaza and Sudan, urging ceasefire efforts and a political settlement that preserves Sudan’s unity, while also pushing implementation of Trump’s Gaza peace plan phases. Regional Security Cooperation: Uganda’s Museveni said its Somalia deployment was driven by solidarity with Ethiopia and regional strategy, as funding concerns threaten the AU mission’s survival. Business & Investment Angle: Somalia’s public works minister met Turkish, Djibouti and Sudanese investors to discuss private funding for affordable housing and infrastructure.